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Algorithms Tab

The Algorithms Tab in the Forecast section of Advanced Planning provides the capability for forecasters to adjust the history used for forecasting. This is most applicable to adjusting history when unusual / unrepeatable events SKU history and undermine the forecastability of the data. This feature is only available in the Forecast section of Advanced Planning.

In most cases, we do not recommend applying user overrides to history and instead recommend applying automated outlier adjustments to the historical values.

Future plans for the tab include algorithms manipulation, sandbox forecasting, and forecast regeneration for one or few contexts.

Overview

The Algorithms tab includes a number of sections:

  1. Forecast Units Grid
  2. Forecast History Units Grid
  3. Forecast Chart

The Algorithm tab Forecast History displays Initial and Final rows at non-forecast levels and Initial, Adjusted, Final, and Fitted at Forecast Levels. Forecast levels are chosen during the forecast process.

Forecast Units Grid

Forecast units grid is the resulting forecast values and includes the following information:

  • Forecast Range
    • Aligned with forecasting planning horizon (more content is displayed by scrolling to the right) and forecasting bucket type. Starting bucket is based on last forecast run, not rolling period (i.e. Forecast run on November '20, current period Jan 21' → first period displayed will be Nov '20). In the image below the first period is December 2020 which aligns with the month the statistical forecast was run.
  • Forecast Values
    • Statistical forecast values produced from last forecast analysis.
    • There is no special color coding of these values.
  • Grid actions
    • Export all data by "xls" icon.

Forecast History Units Grid

  1. History Range
    • Aligned with forecasting history horizon (more content with scroll to the right) and forecasting bucket type. 
    • Starting bucket based on historical interval used during last forecast run.
    • End bucket always last full bucket before the starting bucket of the Forecast Units Grid. In case of  Ignore last N buckets, header cells are color coded in yellow and there is a tool tip to visualize which are not used during the forecast analysis.
  2. Initial 
    • This is the latest forecast history from the customer orders upload.
    • This history can impacted by changes to the customer orders data, linking of items, system settings related to basing forecast history on the original due date and quantity or shipped date and quantity, execute or unexecuted past events. As a note, many of these changes are applied with the next data upload which triggers the historical upkeep process.
  3. Adjusted
    • Provides capability to make user-defined manual adjustments (a.k.a. history editing). Users may directly enter edits to the historical values here.
    • The value will be the same as the Initial value if there are no user-defined changes.
    • The historical value is enabled for editing when : 
      • The historical value > 0 . The system allow editing of existing customer order values. Editing of negative historical values are not allowed.
      • Value is 0 and user is at one PCL context. In case there is a stock out or no demand for a particular item, the systems allows to adjust a zero for a context of 1 PCL only.  For more than 1 PCL, there is no capability to edit history of 0 when more than 1 PCL within a context forms the 0 demand.
    • Edited values of 0 at context different than one PCL could be reverted with the revert functionality only or changed at PCL level.
    • Color Coding in Adjusted History:
      • Red color coding is applied when editing is disabled due to a negative value or 0 at a non-PCL level.
      • Blue color coding is applied to an edited value.
    • Any historical edits that are made will impact the Traffic Light and the Demand plan is marked as outdated.
    • Adjusted row values will match the Forecast History line in the chart of Statistics and Plan tabs.
    • Adjusted values are used for forecast statistics and forecast disaggregation
  4. Final
    • Snapshot of forecasting history from last forecast analysis with applied manual and system adjustments (outliers).
    • Available at forecasting levels only.
    • Same as adjusted if no outliers. In case of Outliers correction, the buckets with outlier are color coded and the value is different than the adjusted one with a tool tip that communicates the outlier. 
    • Empty value if leading zeroes removed.
  5. Fitted 
    • Snapshot of fitted values from last forecast analysis including impact of outlier removal and history edits.
    • Available at forecasting levels only. 
    • Empty value if leading zeroes removed.

Example

The historical value has been edited from 61,253 to 100,000. Also note that an outlier adjustment has also been applied prior to the edit.

After running a new forecast, the final historical value is changed to 100,000. In addition, since the historical value is changed, the outlier historical value has also changed. These in turn affect the fitted forecast values which extend to producing new forecast values.

Tool Tips

The following tool tips are displayed to further communicate color coding

  • Period not taken in forecasting because of ignore last N buckets setting in header
    • Tool Tip = "Period excluded from forecasting."
  • 0 not editable on higher level in cell
    • Tool Tip = "Zero value may only be edited at the PCL."
  • Negative value not editable in cell
    • Tool Tip = "Negative value may not be edited."
  • Outlier in final forecast in cell
    • Tool Tip = "Outlier adjustment applied." as shown in the example below.

Grid Actions

  1. Save newly entered adjusted history edits
  2. Revert existing adjusted history edits via opening a popup with options for date range (see below)
  3. Export all data

Revert Function

Forecast Chart

Chart Data

  • Combining data sources (and their ranges) from both grids.
  • Starting point of chart will be aligned with starting point of Forecast Units Grid.
  • Includes Initial, Adjusted, Forecast for all levels.
  • Includes Fitted and Final for forecasting levels.

Chart Options

  • Accessible by clicking the "Chart Options" button next to 'Run Forecast' button.
  • Includes "Chart Type" selection
  • Data sources available for select/deselect for cases when chart are cluttered (i.e. in weeks). Аll the data sources are listed at all levels. If any data sources are not available for currently selected level, this is reflected in chart itself.

Chart Types

  • Line chart similar to plan tab one.
  • Bar chart to visualize year over year. 

Chart Colors

In case of line chart, there is only one color per data source.

In case of bars, the same color is used with different opacity for one data source but different years.

  • Initial - Green
  • Adjusted - Pink and same as Forecast History line in other charts
  • Final - Blue
  • Fitted - Yellow
  • Forecast - Purple and same as Statistical Forecast line in other charts

Historical Interval

  • Defined by the system settings Forecast history length (months) and Ignore last N buckets.
  • Always aligned to full buckets based on the forecasting bucket type.
  • Leading zeros are removed within the interval (a leading zero is the time frame before demand starts within the historical time frame selected for forecasting within System Settings.
  • Used across all forecasting related calculations (the demand profile, ADI, COV, algorithm selection, forecasting itself and forecast statistics).

Additional Info

  • All units in grids and chart are rounded based on Units rules.
  • For newly created companies, that have never run the forecast analysis, the tab elements will be empty
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